Monday, 19 December 2011

The 5 Stages to Sports Trading

The 5 Stages to Sports Trading

The above link will take you to a brilliant post which I found on the Geek's Toy forum. It is essential reading for any newbie trader but will also fascinate anyone who has been trading for any length of time. It is pretty much spot on as far as I'm concerned, in its evaluation of the stages the typical person goes through in their trading life.

I'm currently on Step 4 - Conscious Competence. I hit that stage within the last couple of months, after 20 months of trading tennis. I did trade football for a couple of years before this and quit, but to be honest, it was more gambling with an exit point (and I didn't bother using it much of the time!).

When I began this blog back in February, I had recently hit stage 3 - The Eureka Moment. In fact, I'd say I had a second Eureka phase in September, which was just as vital and fundamentally shaped the way I trade today. According to this analysis, I am about 6 months away from reaching the final stage, which is very exciting indeed.

The thing that really interests me about these stages is that even if I'd read them when I first started trading, I don't think they would have helped me to skip through any of them. I may have gone through each one a bit quicker but even then, I'm not sure it would have made much difference. I think that's just the way it is with most newbie traders - they don't want to be told that this is hard work, will take a long time to master and that they are unlikely to be the exception to the rule. I know that's what I thought and I don't even consider myself a stubborn person! It's just the way we are as humans I suppose.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.

What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently

I am part of that remaining 20% and I suppose I'm around that 3 year stage, depending on how much of the football 'trading' you take into account. Will I become part of the 5-10%? I hope you'll join me to find out in a couple of weeks time. In the mean time, here's world number 16, Russia's Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:


  1. Structure of argument is basically plagiarized from

    Some acknowledgement of that would have been nice and useful. I recommend reading the original (from psychology).

  2. The Geek found it on the BF forum, posted by someone who probably found it elsewhere... whilst I can see where you are coming from, George, I think the charge of plagiarism might be a tad harsh! The original does indeed make interesting reading but the trading interpretation of it is much more useful!

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