Sunday, 2 September 2012

God Bless the US Open

Now, I'm not a man of faith (in fact, I'm as strong an atheist as you are ever likely to meet) but even so, I have been thanking the lord for the good ol' US of A and its most tremendous of tennis tournaments because it has hauled me out of a sticky August mud-hole. I have traded poorly for 3 weeks (as I mentioned in my previous post) but I think the fact there was no tennis to trade the day before Flushing Meadows began, enabled me to relax, simmer down and garner myself for the final Grand Slam of 2012.

The last 5 days have been some of the best trading I've ever done, completely turning my month around into something respectable. It helped that I made the brave (stupid?) decision to up my stakes by a couple of percent, without actually increasing my bank. It just seemed to bring back that extra sharpness and focus that had been lacking all month. I actually felt a little fear when entering the markets, for the first time in many months. This added pressure worked to keep me on my toes and make sure that I did everything thoroughly and professionally. Once the greens started to roll in (and fortunately, they came immediately) I was quickly relaxed, fearless and into my old rhythm. I have always maintained that if I am as focused as I can be and my body and mind are working close to optimum levels, I will continue to make money from trading. Nothing proved that more than these first few days in New York.

So now that I'm working with slightly larger stakes, how do I feel? First of all, I should state that I have traded using much higher stakes than these a couple of years ago and they were a much higher percentage of my bank too. So seeing larger liabilities does not pose an issue. After the initial feeling of anxiety at changing up a gear, I knew I would be fine as long as I didn't immediately hit a spell of bad variance. It was a risk I took because that could've easily happened and that may have resulted in a bad reaction. But it's done now and the risk paid off, so I will continue to trade with this larger percentage of the bank.

Hopefully, if profits increase over the next 2 months, I'll be able to start next season with a bigger bank and then increase stakes further but as I said in my last post, unforeseen circumstances have meant I will have to withdraw most, if not all profit made for the foreseeable future. That became even more true a couple of days ago, when my boiler cylinder decided to wake me up in the middle of the night - it was leaking and dripping water was cascading through the ceiling lights, soaking my living room! So that's more money I'll have to put aside - it never rains but it pours!

It's so frustrating because I'd love the opportunity to just blitz through the remaining 2 months of the tennis season and gather up a nice little nest-egg for a 2013 campaign which would promise to produce the kind of money which I could comfortably live off. Whilst this month's profits are the lowest I've recorded since January, the way I look at it, if I can make this during a bad month, I should be very confident going forward. I just have to keep reminding myself of how far I've come over the past year; from almost giving up to now being at the point where I can actually make regular profits. Patience is a virtue - much more so than any silly, out-dated religious doctrine.

Heidi El Tabakh:

12 comments:

  1. Hello, can you please tell as what is you actual bank you use on betfair, or atleast % of bank as stake/liab and old (before increase).

    thanks

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  2. Average liability was 2.5%, it's now maximum liability of 5%.

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  3. Very safe 2.5 , 5% still very safe. I thought was around 5-10% and rise it to 10-20% of bank.

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    1. It's not that safe, it's pretty standard. Most experienced traders risk 1-3% on any 1 trade. 10% is way too high, you can lose your bank very quickly with that risk.

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  4. And starting stake the same ? i.e. start backing the fav from the start 5% stake max all the way with max distr loss of 5% ?

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  5. 5% is my MAX liability, that doesn't mean I will use 5% every time. I don't intend to lose 5%, I always exit well before it hits that amount.

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  6. Sultan, can you write a word or two about your trading strategies...do you back favorite if he/she lost first set, do you trade point-by-point, do you lay short priced favorite before the match,...? And what is your exit strategy (from your P&L I can see that when you have loosing trade, you loose very small amount of money). Thank you in advance! P.S.: Keep up the good work!

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    1. It's very simple Tattoo - I look for value. That's all! There can be value at any stage - pre-match, end of set, after a break, player serving for the match, can be almost any price (though I rarely back short prices). I don't trade point to point. I enter when I think there is good value and good risk-reward ratio. I exit when I feel that value is gone or that I'm likely to be on the end of a big swing or a red position. It really depends on the game, there are a lot of options I can draw from.

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  7. Do you save your work on excel file? I was wondering what is your average profit/match. In my case its 10-11% of stake, in fact I was shocked at first to see such a low profit, when I know I have big profit/trades. The reason is because I overtrade not looking always for value mentry points, I need hard work on that issue, and I trade most of the matches available on my schedule (because I dont have all day available) resulting in many loses (small) and big rewords when winning covering all the previous loses.

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  8. Also can you tell me how many trades you have/match in general ? You're more like a swing trader with fewer possible 1-10 , or there are times when you have to scroll down to see all bets :) - like Ido and count up to 50bets (or more)/match.

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